Spain will be the star?
Spain will be the star?
Ver mensaje de Juan SuchI have just read an article from foodandwine.com (thanks to Manuel Camblor for the link) entitled ";Parker Predicts the Future"; and written by Robert M. Parker, Jr.
Parker makes 12 predictions about the future of the wine industry in 10 years. Apart from classical technological predictions (";The wine Web will go mainstream. Internet message boards, Web sites tailored for wine geeks and state-of-the-art winery sites all instantaneously disseminate information about new wines and new producers. Today the realm of cyberspace junkies and hardcore Internet users, these sites will become mainstream in 10 years. A much more democratic, open range of experts, consultants, specialists, advisors and chatty wine nerds will assume the role of today’s wine publications.";) it is interesting this prediction:
";6. Spain will be the star
Look for Spain to continue to soar. Today it is emerging as a leader in wine quality and creativity, combining the finest characteristics of tradition with a modern and progressive winemaking philosophy. Spain, just coming out of a long period of cooperative winemaking that valued quantity over quality, has begun to recognize that it possesses many old-vine vineyards with almost unlimited potential. Spanish wineries recognize that they are trapped neither by history nor by the need to maintain the status quo that currently frustrates and inhibits so many French producers. By 2015, those areas that have traditionally produced Spain’s finest wines (Ribera del Duero and Rioja) will have assumed second place behind such up-and-coming regions as Toro, Jumilla and Priorat.";
Do you agree with this prediction?
I think Rioja and Ribera will have not assumed second place, both in terms of quality and economic importance.
And there are another Parker predictions we can discuss... :-)
World bidding wars for top wines
Ver mensaje de Juan SuchAnother interesting prediction. And, in this one, I’m afraid I agree with Bob:
";3 World bidding wars will begin for top wines
Competition for the world’s greatest wines will increase exponentially: The most limited production wines will become even more expensive and more difficult to obtain. The burgeoning interest in fine wine in Asia, South America, Central and Eastern Europe and Russia will make things even worse. There will be bidding wars at auctions for the few cases of highly praised, limited production wines. No matter how high prices appear today for wines from the most hallowed vineyards, they represent only a fraction of what these wines will fetch in a decade. Americans may scream bloody murder when looking at the future prices for the 2003 first growth Bordeaux (an average of $4,000 a case), but if my instincts are correct, 10 years from now a great vintage of these first growths will cost over $10,000 a case...at the minimum. It is simple: The quantity of these great wines is finite, and the demand for them will become at least 10 times greater.";
But, be quiet, my dear poor forumites, because the other side of the coin tells...
";11 Value will be valued
Despite my doom-and-gloom prediction about the prohibitive cost of the world’s greatest wines, there will be more high-quality, low-priced wines than ever before. This trend will be led primarily by European countries, although Australia will still play a huge role. Australia has perfected industrial farming: No other country appears capable of producing an $8 wine as well as it does. However, too many of those wines are simple, fruity and somewhat soulless. Australia will need to improve its game and create accessible wines with more character and interest to compete in the world market 10 years from now.";
Another strange floating object on the beach of my life...
Ver mensaje de Juan SuchNotice how Parker makes a strange little hierarchy: It’s ";Ribera del Duero and Rioja"; (is this order conscious?) to be ";overtaken"; by the Mediterranean regions... Of course, there’s that very odd prediction about the up-and-comingness of ";unoaked wine."; How would that square off with the ";new stars"; of Priorat, Jumilla and the like?
Anyway, you’re most welcome. The link was sent to me by a friend.
M.
Re: Another strange floating object on the beach of my life...
Ver mensaje de MCamblorWell, he would say that, wouldn’t he?
Alternately, others might predict a return to valuing more traditional, non-parkerised wines and a growing boredom with overextracted fruit juice.
The Prophet...
Ver mensaje de suikoOne always has to consider whatever interest (and there are many kinds of interests) a prophet has in the fulfillment of his/her prophecies...
There’s always an agenda.
M.
And... so where is the evidence?
Ver mensaje de Juan SuchI respect Parker as a wine taster. I have only followed his recommendations three or four times, and in all of them I have fully agreed with his perception about a particular wine.
So that’s one thing. Having said that, how can the guy--or any other individual on this planet-- claim that in 15 years Rioja and Ribera will no longer be the stars?
Some flaws about such statement/prediction are the following:
-- He is assuming that the market dynamics are, in deed, static. This is to say that while Toro, Priorat, Jumilla, etc are moving ahead, the competition (Ribera, Rioja) will do nothing about it.
-- He does not seem to have the foggiest idea about segmentation, targeting, and positioning as managerial disciplines that Rioja and Ribera can use (and WILL use). It does not matter to be the ";leader."; Or does it? Either way, if Rioja and Ribera identify and continue to nurture their targets, there is a very good likelihood that they will be competing in different segments. Therefore, they will not be comparable with Toros, Prioratos or Jumillas --unless we seem them under the centuries-old microscope known as ";market share.";
-- He is also apparently assuming (consciously or not) that no matter how much Toro, Priorato and Jumilla produce, the market will absorb it because it’s ";high quality, mind-blowing"; wine. Even if this were true, the pricing dynamics of the industry are particularly difficult to be anticipated. Can these dynamics hold high prices? Yes. For how long? How elastic is this demand? It follows that we cannot know how will the consumer react.
I am not saying he IS wrong. I am saying he has absolutely NO evidence. His intuition does not hold in front of competitive analysis --which is applicable to wine, diapers, condoms, any industry. Whether we wine Romantics like it or not, this is a fact of life.
Saludos,
twitter.com/daniel_pw
Al buen amigo, dale tu pan y dale tu vino
Re: And... so where is the evidence?
Ver mensaje de Daniel P.WhitakerYeap, it’s a very well known fact in statistics that it is virtually impossible to ";extrapolate"; so far without HUGE uncertainty bands which makes the predictions bassically useless ... I’m used to seing this long term predictions all the time ... I’m just as used to completely ignore them ;)
MaJesus
Re: Another strange floating object on the beach of my life...
Ver mensaje de MCamblor";Notice how Parker makes a strange little hierarchy: It’s ";Ribera del Duero and Rioja"; (is this order conscious?) to be ";overtaken"; by the Mediterranean regions....";
Hmmm. I gather from the quote above Parker said overtaken by ";Toro, Jumilla and Priorat."; Last I check Toro - the first listed DO among the supposedly new guard - was further from the Mediterranean than Rioja or Ribera del Duero.
In any event, I think the comment about Jumilla strikes me as consistent with Parker’s desire to be provocative. But Priorat? Many would say that, in the sense that Parker probably means it, Priorat may well have already overtaken Ribera del Duero and Rioja.